The one about Vibe Coding software

The Future of Software in the Age of AI

The conversation around software and its future in the age of AI has been fiery the last couple of weeks. With platforms like Figma and Salesforce seeing huge drops in value, people are asking: Who will pay for software if you can just "vibe code" it yourself?

Jensen Huang responded by calling this "the most illogical thing in the world," using the analogy that just because you can build a hammer doesn't mean you want to build it yourself.

Of course, software is a huge category, so the entire segment won’t react in the same way - although that's how stocks are being treated because...hype.

Part 1 — My Prediction:

What will Software Purchasers do?

• SMBs and Individuals: This covers everyone from a plumber to a restaurant owner to a freelance developer. What ties this group together is a lack of time and varied technical expertise. Even if competition drives prices down, all but the most technical SMBs will continue to purchase software—they’ll just take advantage of lower prices and a broader market of options.

• Mid-Sized Businesses and Startups: A mid-sized business or a Series A-C startup is the most likely to create their own internal tools. They have the technical know-how but lack the risk aversion and entrenched processes that come with massive scale. I think this is where software companies risk losing customers.

• Large Businesses: Larger enterprises (Series D+ up to FAANG) have far more policies and guardrails. There is too much at stake to have someone "vibe coding" critical software. Internal tool development will happen, but it will be intentional—not just a PM deciding, "Hey, I need this, so I whipped it up over the weekend, let's use it."

What will Software Creators do?

• Businesses creating for themselves: The question a business will ask is: How expensive is it to buy versus build? The cost of creating internally has gotten way lower with AI.

• Individuals creating to sell: There will be a wave of people who see the opportunity to create copycat software and offer it at lower prices. I think this is the most interesting and disruptive part of the shift.

• Large businesses offering software for free: Giants like Google may decide to bundle more services for free, since they are no longer as costly to produce. Think Google Docs on steroids.

  
  

So, software isn't dead, but there is going to be a lot of movement in the industry, especially for businesses that are slow-moving in this storm. I'm still bullish on Figma, though—even if the market isn't—because it's still super hard to do half-decent design using AI!

With all this said, how hard is vibe coding really?

I took my first stab at creating something more complex than just a basic webpage. Since inflation and grocery store prices are on everyone's minds, I thought I would make a useful tool for... myself. I wanted something that finds the best prices on the grocery items I buy regularly.

Long story short: I think making the MVP is much easier than one would think, but refining it and making the user experience great takes real expertise. Like anything, the devil is in the last 20% of details.

I will post the details of this experiment soon in Part 2—here is a teaser. :)